AP Top 25 Preseason Poll Takeaways: Big 12 Underrated, SEC Overhyped

The Big 12 is underrated, and the SEC is overrated. Yup, I said it.

This of course, is based on the AP Top 25 preseason poll which was released on Monday. The Big 12 had four schools make the Top 25, while the SEC hype machine was in full force during the offseason as the national media drank the kool-aid and gave the conference 10 teams in the Top 25.

Just don't be surprised when half of those teams aren't ranked and several more end up with losing records again too. Voters seem to hit the 'reset' button every offseason, pretending like last year’s results never happened. They fall back on familiar brands, ranking logos over performance, and giving less attention to teams that are genuinely playing at a high level.

But it's the SEC... "it just means more right?"

Thankfully, the AP Poll doesn't decide the national champion, but it does set expectations and shape narratives — whether people like to admit it or not. For example, in the Big 12 last year, both BYU and Arizona State were picked to finish near the bottom, yet both finished at the top.

This lead "experts" and critics to argue that the Big 12 most not have been very good if those were the top teams. We all know that wasn't the case as the Cougars didn't get a shot with their playoff resume, while Arizona State got robbed of a win in its playoff game against Texas.

AP Preseason Poll: The Good And The Bad For Big 12

The Big 12 has four ranked teams, with BYU, Utah and Baylor sitting just outside at No. 26-28. At first glance, you'd think that was a major win for the conference with likely seven teams ranked during the first few weeks if everything goes right.

But as the great Lee Corso would say... "not so fast my friend."

First, let's talk about the good.

If we count BYU, Utah, and Baylor, this gives the Big 12 seven teams in the Top 28, representing 25%.

So how does this compare to the SEC, Big Ten and ACC?

• SEC = 10 teams (35%)

• Big 12 = 7 teams (25%)

• Big Ten = 6 teams (22%)

• ACC = 3 teams (11%)

As you can see, the Big 12 ranks second best. Even if we were to expand it to the Top 30, the Big 12 would be tied for second with the Big Ten, and it would still have double the amount of teams that the ACC has.

With nearly half the league on the verge of being ranked, that's exactly what the Big 12 needed in order to change the narrative. However, because they are near the end of the poll, any slight hiccups will likely knock them right out with a loss. But if the league can have a great non-conference and get a lot of marquee wins, that will set the stage for the rest of the season and put the Big 12 in a great spot. Now the teams just need to deliver.

So what's the bad news?

College football doesn't reward parity. It's best to be top heavy, as we've seen from the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC.

Don't look at how many teams are ranked — but look where they are ranked. Quality over quantity! Other than Arizona State, an early loss from anyone else in the Big 12 will result in them getting knocked out of the polls. There's no room for error when starting in the back.

Taking a look at just the Top 15, the SEC leads the way with 6 programs, followed by the Big Ten with five. Meanwhile, the ACC, which isn't nearly as competitive as the Big 12, managed to get two programs in the Top 15, with SMU right behind at No. 16.

Meanwhile, the Big 12 only has one member in the Top 15: Arizona State (No. 11).

Long story short, the Big 12 faces a major uphill battle trying to climb into the national picture and playoffs as media members and national prognosticators have determined — before the season even started — that the Big 12 is the fourth best conference right now.

That's not something the league can afford to happen and will need Big 12 teams to make a big statement during the non-conference portion and pick up some marquee wins to change the narrative around the conference. While other conferences get the benefit of the doubt, the Big 12 is going to have to make some noise and put together a season that national pundits can't ignore.

Big 12 Underrated

Arizona State, Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas Tech, on paper, appear to be very solid and should stay ranked for much of the year.

I also believe the opportunity will come for several Big 12 schools to make the jump into the Top 25 which will help bolster the league's prestige, which suffered a significant blow once Texas and Oklahoma went to the SEC.

BYU — Outside of a new quarterback, the Cougars bring back a lot of experience on both sies of the ball — including one of the best special team units in the country. This team went 11-2 and finished ranked No. 13 in the country last year. The team should have finished higher, however, preseason expectations and Big 12 perception held the Cougars back. The Cougars were a playoff team and had a playoff resume, but never got the chance to prove it. With a favorable schedule, I see the Cougars remaining in the polls and challenging for a Big 12 title again.

Utah — Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, the Utes quickly took control and turned UCLA and USC into their little brothers. Last year's 5-7 record was the first time in over a decade that the Utes had a losing season and missed a bowl game. With plenty of experience and talent returning, I think the Utes will bounce back and will be a Top 25 team and challenge for the Big 12 title. This assumes they don't have to play 4 different quarterbacks like they did last year due to season-ending injuries. With some notable transfers coming in, the Utes should be back to their Top 25 self.

Baylor — The Bears figured things out and became one of the hottest teams down the stretch last year, winning 6 of their last 7 games and averaging 40 points per game during that time. With a lot of talent coming back, Baylor has a chance to make the most noise of any Big 12 team as the Bears open the season against Auburn before traveling to Dallas, Texas the following week to face No. 16 SMU.

The Big 12 returns 10 starting quarterbacks, the most of any league, which should be a big benefit, especially during non-conference play as others teams work in new players right out of the gate.

SEC Overrated

Voters, "experts" and fans need to realize that the SEC is dominated by the same two schools every year (Alabama, Georgia), followed by several others who are hit and miss such as: LSU, Texas A&M, Tennessee, and Ole Miss.

The league benefited greatly when they stole Texas and Oklahoma away from the Big 12. Texas went on to win the SEC in their first year, which should tell you all you need to know about the so-called "best conference." The Longhorns struggled in the Big 12, winning the title just three times in the past 25 years.

No. 15 Florida — Florida quarterback DJ Lagway has all the potential in the world, but the Gators program has been stuck in neutral lately. Since Billy Napier took over as head coach in 2021, Florida has posted a .500 record of 19-19, including a subpar 11-13 mark in SEC play.

Don't forget, Lagway has been rehabbing injuries throughout the offseason and combined with an underwhelming transfer haul, that's not a recipe for success. Let's not forget the coaching staff which continues to be a major hurdle for the program. With a tough schedule, I don’t see the Gators winning more than seven games this season. If that’s the case, expect Napier to be fired and for the Gators to find a new coach.

No. 18 Oklahoma — Oklahoma finished 6–7 last year and returns with a heavily rebuilt roster — yet they open the season ranked No. 18. That is way too generous for a team still sorting out major issues.

Brent Venables is on the hot seat, which led him to make sweeping changes such as bringing in QB John Mateer and OC Ben Arbuckle from Washington State, Cal RB Jaydn Ott, and NFL vet Jim Nagy as GM. But flashy additions won’t fix everything overnight. Mateer has promise, but let’s be honest — he’s coming from the hollowed-out remains of the Pac-12 last year. To make matters worse, the Sooners allowed more sacks than any team in the nation last season (50), and their O-line still remains a work in progress. I expect the Sooners to win 6 or 7 games, but they won't be ranked by the end of the season. Giving them a Top 20 spot is laughable.

No. 21 Ole Miss — On the surface, Ole Miss checks all the preseason poll boxes: a proven head coach, double-digit wins in back-to-back years, and a flashy transfer class that grabbed headlines. But looking deeper, and the Rebels’ Top 25 ranking starts to feel more like a reputation play than a reflection of what this team actually brings this year.

Let’s start with the numbers. No team in the SEC returns fewer starters than Ole Miss — just five. That’s not a typo. The core of the 21 wins over the past two seasons? Mostly gone. What remains is a roster built heavily through the portal, banking on chemistry and cohesion developing overnight. Lane Kiffin has leaned on the transfer model before and made it work, but this year’s blueprint looks shakier than usual.

The offensive line will feature four new starters. The quarterback, Austin Simmons, is talented but untested. Outside of Cayden Lee, the offense lacks a proven playmaker. For all the preseason hype, the Rebels feel more like a collection of question marks than a Top 25 team.

No. 24 Tennessee — If we’re being honest, Tennessee has no business being ranked to start the season. This is a team riding the coattails of past hype, not current talent. The Vols lost their starting quarterback, their top offensive weapon, and most of their firepower — yet somehow landed a spot in the AP Top 25. Based on what, exactly?

Quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s surprise departure threw the program into disarray. His expected replacement, Joey Aguilar, played at Appalachian State and the playmakers are nonexistent. Tennessee’s receiver room is unproven and painfully thin, and things got worse with the offseason loss of star running back Dylan Sampson, who accounted for 22 touchdowns in 2024. That’s not a piece you replace — it’s a crater in the offense.

Even the SEC media isn’t buying what Tennessee’s selling. In their own preseason poll, the Vols finished behind Vanderbilt in total votes. That’s not just embarrassing — it’s telling.

Big 12 vs. SEC

To conclude, let's remember that the AP Top 25 preseason poll isn't very accurate and it's more about how conferences are perceived verses how they perform.

Yes, the SEC is largely inflated again, while the Big 12 is underrated, but if the conference wants more credibility/popularity, it's going to need to win big games and do so continually. Thankfully they can do just that with a number of ranked matchups, as well as games against the SEC.

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