Big 12 College Football Playoff Predictions 2025: Where Every Team Could Land

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee's first top 25 rankings of the 2025 season arrive tonight, giving us a glimpse at how the group views the nation's top teams based on a variety of factors.

For the first time, fans will also get a closer look at “record strength,” a new metric introduced to better reflect how teams fare against their opponents. The system is meant to reward programs that defeat strong competition while easing the sting of losses to elite teams.

Per the College Football Playoff official procedures, the committee ranks teams based on on-field performance, taking into account conference titles, strength of schedule, head-to-head outcomes, and results against common opponents when comparing similar teams.

Each of the 13 committee members begins the process by listing the 30 teams they believe are the strongest in college football. When at least three members include the same team, that team moves forward for deeper evaluation and eventual ranking within the Top 25.

College Football Playoff Predictions — National Media

NCAA: BYU (6), Texas Tech (8), Utah (17), Cincinnati (24)
CBS Sports: BYU (7), Texas Tech (9), Utah (18)
On3: BYU (8), Texas Tech (9), Utah (17), Cincinnati (25)
The Athletic: BYU (8), Texas Tech (9), Utah (17), Cincinnati (25)
ESPN Staff (Top 12 only): BYU (7), Texas Tech (9)
NBC Sports (Top 12 only): BYU (7), Texas Tech (10)

My Predictions (What CFP Committee Will Likely Do)

Get ready for a copy cat show.

Based on history, the initial college football playoff rankings are essentially an exact copy of the AP Top 25 poll. I went and looked at previous years and there really isn't much difference. There were a couple teams that either moved 1 spot higher or lower, but other than that, teams were exactly ranked as what they were in the AP Poll -- which is a scary since a plethora of AP voters don't even watch the games as evident by their ballots each week and the outrage that has ensued because of it (see here, here, and here).

Every week, like clockwork, there's several ballots where a team that lost, was ranked much higher for some reason, so hopefully the College Football Playoff Committee will actually do their job this time instead of copying the AP Poll.

With new metrics, the committee should analyze and take more things into account unlike the AP Top 25 voters who are casting their ballots at midnight and are half asleep. We've already seen a plethora of bizarre rankings from AP voters, so hopefully the committee will actually take the time to rank teams instead of copying the AP Poll like they've done every year since the committee was formed.

Based on my hunch and how they've viewed Big 12 teams in the past, here's my predictions of where the Big 12 teams will likely land. Don't get me wrong, I think BYU, Texas Tech, Utah and Cincinnati should all be higher, but this prediction is based on what I expect the committee to do tonight.

And if history is any guide, those College Football Playoff standings will likely mirror the major media polls — at least until the final reveal, when the eye test tends to outweigh everything else.

BYU

The Cougars will likely come in ranked No. 8, but they should be higher. There's only 4 undefeated teams left and they are all from P4 conferences. Yet Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas A&M will be 1, 2, 3 and BYU is currently 8.

Make it make sense.

Hopefully the committee makes the correction for BYU, but don't expect it based on past history. If anything, they might move BYU down like they've done in the past.

Texas Tech

I expect the Red Raiders to check in at No. 9, or one spot behind wherever BYU lands. I don't think the committee will rank them higher since BYU is undefeated and in the same conference, but that hasn't stopped voters from putting in a bunch of 1-loss teams ahead of BYU: Oregon, Ole Miss, Alabama and Georgia.

Utah

The Utes will likely land at No. 17. Utah's only two losses are to both Top 10 teams (BYU, Texas Tech), but the committee has always shown more love to the SEC and Big Ten schools. Still, if the Utes land at 17, that isn't a bad spot as the Utes only need to move up 6 spots to secure an at-large bid -- assuming the G5 teams gets the 12th seed. If the Utes run the table, they should be able to do it.

Cincinnati

Saturday's blowout loss to Utah put a huge dent in the Bearcats' chances of making the CFP. The only chance to make it now is if they win out, somehow make the Big 12 title game through all the tiebreaking scenarios, and then win the title game. However, based on tonight, I expect to see Cincinnati check in at No. 25.

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