What AP Preseason Poll Reveals About Big 12 + BYU, Utah, Baylor Just Miss The Cut

Big 12 football is just around the corner with the season-opening and marquee international matchup between Kansas State-Iowa State, serving up what should be another unforgettable season in the Big 12.

It will be a Top 25 matchup after the AP Top 25 preseason poll was released Monday, giving the Big 12 four ranked teams, with five more schools receiving votes.

Arizona State leads the way at No. 11, followed by Kansas State (No. 17), Iowa State (No. 22) and Texas Tech (No. 23). It's the Sun Devils' highest preseason ranking since 1998, while the Wildcats are ranked for a third consecutive season — the first time since the 1999, 2000 and 2001 seasons. Iowa State opens the season at No. 22, and has now been ranked in 15 of the last 16 AP polls. Meanwhile, Texas Tech makes its long-awaited preseason debut for the first time since 2008.

The Big 12 nearly got three more schools in as BYU (156 points), Utah (144 points), and Baylor (132 points) checked in at: No. 26, 27, and 28. If all goes well after the first week, the Big 12 could tie a league record with seven ranked teams in the AP Poll. Meanwhile, TCU (4 points) and Colorado (1 point) each rounded out the teams receiving votes, giving the conference 10 teams.

The Associated Press preseason Top 25 poll has many flaws, however, it does offer an early snapshot of national expectations from national media members. For the Big 12, the takeaway is mixed: while the league does have five ranked teams which is encouraging, the bad new is that the conference only has one representative in the Top 15. Even the ACC which isn't as strong or as deep as the Big 12, has two schools in the Top 10.

Long story short, the Big 12 faces a major uphill battle trying to climb into the national picture as media members and national prognosticators are signaling the Big 12 is currently the fourth best conference right now. That's not something the league can afford to happen and will need Big 12 teams to make a big statement during the non-conference games and pick up some marquee wins to change the narrative around the conference.

Big 12 Football Preview

After last season's madness, in which the projected top teams finished at the bottom and the bottom teams finished near the top, the league decided to do away with preseason polls because of the damage it caused last year. The league's credibility took a tumble because the league's top teams fumbled, while the expected bottom dwellers (BYU, Arizona State) rose to the top, making it seem to outsiders that the league wasn't very good or strong. Don't get me started with how ridiculous preseason polls are, but that's the world we live in.

Arizona State: The Sun Devils are the returning conference champions and have the benefit of a veteran roster. With the return of Sam Leavitt — arguably one of the top QB's in the country — Arizona State looks to not only repeat as Big 12 champs, but to avenge last season’s short playoff run.

Kansas State: The Wildcats check in at No. 17, and also return a veteran quarterback in Avery Johnson who played in a number of games as a freshman in 2023, before taking the starting role in 2024. If the team can take a step forward from last year, they'll be a playoff and Big 12 contender.

Iowa State: It's no surprise the Cyclones are ranked (No. 22), having been 15 of the last 16 seasons, however, I would have thought Iowa State would have been a  bit higher. Last year, the team set a program record for wins (11) and finished ranked 15th for its second-best finish in school history. With veteran QB Rocco Becht back, the Cyclones will likely reload and will be a force in the Big 12.

Texas Tech: The Red Raiders, are back in the AP Preseason poll for the first time in nearly two decades. A big part of that is what the program did around NIL, buying arguably one of the most expensive rosters in all of college football. However, will all that star power translate into wins? We'll see. Based on the past, the Red Raiders don't live up to the hype, but is this year different? It feels that way at the moment.

BYU: Oh, what could have been! If BYU QB Jake Retzlaff didn't commit an honor code violation and leave the school, the Cougars would have likely been a Top 15 team in the preseason poll. Now that he's gone, BYU's expectations took a tumble, however, based on the disrespect the team received last year, the team will likely relish the underdog role, and combined with a very favorable Big 12 schedule, the Cougars should be in the hunt for a Big 12 title. With one of the top defenses and special teams units, the Cougars shouldn't be taken lightly.

Utah: After a wildly disappointing season last year in which the team missed a bowl game for the first time since 2013 — after being projected to finish near the top of the Big 12 — the Utes will be on a revenge tour. With a stout defense as always and combined with some playmakers on offense, Utah should look like its old self again and will be a Big 12 title contender. This could also be Kyle Whittingham's last season at Utah, and if there is one guy that can fire team up, its Whittingham.

Baylor: After back-to-back losing campaigns, and just when it looked like Dave Aranda was about to get fired, the Bears, rolled off six consecutive wins last season to finish the year at 8-5 and preserve Aranda's job. With playmakers in Sawyer Robertson and Bryson Washington returning — forming one of the deadliest duos in the country — now all the team needs is a defense. If they can find that, Baylor will be a Big 12 contender.

Big 12 Conclusion

Remember, the AP preseason rankings are mainly for entertainment purposes only. The number of teams that start the season ranked that finish the season unranked continues to climb, especially the last few years.

Last year, 52% of the teams finish unranked, with 60% in 2022, and 56% in 2021. So don't put a lot of stock in the preseason polls. I expect a bunch of teams to fall out, and hopefully for the Big 12's sake, the league can get as many teams as possible in the Top 25 to help change the narrative around the conference. With non-conference games against No. 7 Oregon, No. 16 SMU, Auburn, Iowa, Nebraska, Georgia Tech, UCLA, North Carolina, Missouri, Mississippi State, Pitt, and Oregon State, they'll be plenty of opportunities to do just that.

With more than half the conference being a contender, expect a lot of fireworks and chaos just like last year — if not more.

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